Truck Autonomy 2025 Roundup: Progress, But Still Far To Go

The year began with great expectations for autonomy in the trucking space. Twelve months later, we are left with a mish-mash of driverless operation launches on public roads, while private road operations are happening and expanding.

Unlike robotaxis which are ubiquitous across several cities, autonomous trucking has “launched” in various ways… but they’re still just getting up on their driverless feet.

Early this year, some companies said “this is it”—2025 will see driverless operations. One notable player fulfilled their pledge and then stepped back. Others have not fulfilled this pledge—or have they? Launching driverless operations with customers is what matters, whether this is announced publicly or not.

The outlook for 2026 is an echo of where we were this time last year. But now I have much greater confidence that planned expansions are really going to happen next year. And, I se

e the scale of operations expanding across all trucking use cases.

Let’s take a look at the status of key players. None of these companies have been sitting on their hands; significant milestones have been met. After a company-by-company rundown, I’ll provide a perspective on the space in general, then discuss what matters going into 2026.

HIGHWAY LONG HAUL

Aurora

Lead Dog So Far

In the spring, Aurora, went driverless! This was a seminal event for all of trucking; nothing will ever be the same again. But, unsurprisingly, there have been bumps in the road.

Only days after the driverless launch, PACCAR, the maker of the Peterbilt vehicle underpinning the autonomy, insisted that a human be placed back in the cab because a specific part in the vehicle was not fully qualified for product release. What ensued was an odd no man’s land in Aurora’s ongoing operations – somewhere between safety-driver ops and driverless ops. A human observer is on-board, and even though Aurora is adamant that the tech is doing all the driving, their stock price went into a sustained dip from which it has still not recovered.

Skeptics assert that Aurora is using a crutch: since their operations are not fully human less the activity cannot be considered “driverless.” Being in the spotlight over the years, Aurora has established a long and credible track record in stating what is and isn’t the case. My take: the vehicles are fully doing the job without needing on-board human help.

What has ensued, in operational terms, is significant. Since their driverless launch in late April, Aurora vehicles have driven 100,000 driverless miles. In doing so, the company notes a perfect on-time performance and safety record. Five driverless trucks are now regularly delivering customer freight.

During Aurora’s 3Q25 investor presentation, Chris Urmson, co-founder and CEO at Aurora, had a lot to say. “Six months out from launch, we’re achieving more industry-firsts, expanding quickly, and paving the way to deploy hundreds of trucks next year,” he said. “Expanding to El Paso, notching over 100,000 driverless miles, and integrating our new hardware with multiple truck platforms extends our strong lead.”

That’s right, Aurora trucks are now running in Texas from Fort Worth to El Paso, while continuing operations between Dallas and Houston. Customers for the new freight lane include Hirschbach and Russell Transport. Traveling from Fort Worth to El Paso is a 600-mile freight run that can take up to ten hours to complete. The autonomous trucks can drop a load, pickup another load and head back the other way in a day’s time. Compare this to human-driven vehicles in which truck drivers are constrained to eleven hours of driving in a 24-hour period, requiring rest periods.

And it’s not just about driver limitations. Consider how many hours a day a typical Class 8 truck sits motionless because the driver is in a mandated rest period. The truck is therefore a high-cost asset which is “off line” for a large part of the time. This has been a thorn-in-the-side of trucking operations from the beginning. Driverless trucks can greatly increase utilization of these trucks by running almost continuously.

Dr. Urmson also announced that Aurora is ramping up operations and aims to launch a new tech platform in early 2026 to support further scaling.

Aurora also has production partnerships with PACCAR and Volvo Trucks. The Aurora Driver’s common core architecture allows for seamless integration across multiple truck platforms. The new hardware is now being integrated with the Volvo VNL Autonomous, where lineside integration is taking place at Volvo’s New River Valley manufacturing facility.

In an eyebrow-raising twist, Aurora is also purchasing International LT Series vehicles to provide customers with greater driverless capacity in 2026. Upon completion of a closed safety case for these trucks, Aurora plans to resume hauling freight driverlessly.

This is a slick move for Aurora, which gets them out of the deployment doghouse that existed with PACCAR vehicles. They can scale up significantly next year while awaiting the expected launch of factory-built L4 vehicles starting in 2027 by Volvo Trucks.

It is important to understand that Aurora’s interaction with International (part of the TRATON group) will be a limited collaboration. Aurora will perform all the necessary retrofitting required for driverless operations. Both parties have agreed that Aurora is the sole decision maker on when to driverlessly operate the trucks.

Watchers of the autonomous truck space will be aware that, in early 2024, International announced a partnership with PlusAI for its debut of driverless truck products. The partners have previously stated that they are targeting a commercial launch in 2027. It is clear from talking with both Aurora and PlusAI that two very different scenarios are playing out. PlusAI is the chosen supplier for International / TRATON to bring driverless products to market worldwide. Aurora is buyer of International vehicles, which Aurora is retrofitting with the needed hardware and software to operate driverlessly, thus expanding their fleet.

Aurora’s next generation hardware is more robust, while also changing the game cost-wise. The new-gen system will be half the price of the current generation. In addition, the platform will be more reliable, built to last for over a million miles. The hardware is being jointly developed with AUMOVIO (formerly Continental), with product slated for 2027, enabling the deployment of tens of thousands of trucks.

Another surprise arrived from Aurora earlier this month. Their trucks will be hauling fracking sand on highways for Detmar Logistics. Supervised autonomous operations between Detmar’s facility in Midland, Texas and Capital Sand’s mining site in Monahans will begin early next year. Once Aurora deploys its second fleet of driverless trucks, expected in Q2 2026, trips for Detmar will transition to driverless operations without anyone onboard. The route combines high-speed driving on Interstate 20 with local and private roads surrounding Detmar’s facility and the mining site. Notably, Aurora is delivering advanced capabilities at the mining site, including autonomously navigating overhead filling silos for proppant loading. Detmar has committed to using 30 Aurora Driver-powered trucks in 2026, with each unit hauling sand for over 20 hours a day.

Overall, Dr. Urmson remains bullish. He says Aurora will have hundreds of driverless trucks on the road by the end of 2026, and thousands of trucks within the next two years.

Bot Auto

Going Their Own Way

Bot Auto is a two-year-old autonomous trucking company preparing to launch a Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS), business model. Based in Houston, the company aims to own and operate a fleet of autonomous trucks running freight.

Bot Auto describes their Foundation Model-to-All Architecture as follows: “Our AI system leverages advanced transformer-based neural networks that provide a unified world model capable of handling diverse scenarios with robust generalization capabilities. This approach enables our system to safely manage novel situations while maintaining predictable, rule-based safety constraints.” The company has been operating autonomous commercial operations between Houston and San Antonio with safety drivers onboard as the AI is trained.

A major milestone was completed in September, in which the company operated its first human-less hub-to-hub validation run in Houston. Per Bot Auto, “The truck operated within its defined operational domain with no one in the cab and no remote assistance, successfully navigating real-world traffic conditions.” To challenge the tech, the run was executed at sunset, so as to handle both day and night operations.

This milestone serves as a validation benchmark, demonstrating the current maturity and safety of Bot Auto’s autonomy stack and test protocols. If you had been hanging around Riggy’s Truck Parking, just off I-10 in Katy, TX, while this was happening, you might have seen the truck launch and return. Importantly, this was not just an interstate highway trip. From Riggy’s, the vehicle handled surface streets for about 1.5 miles and then took the entrance ramp for I-10, traveling west until making the overpass turn-around at Exit 725 so as to head back east and back to Riggy’s. The roundtrip was approximately 40 miles. But if you didn’t watch it live, no worries: here’s the video.

Prior to the run, Bot Auto completed end-to-end safety verification and validation for the defined Operational Design Domain (ODD), including rigorous closed-course autonomy testing. To further safeguard operations, the truck was equipped with multiple layers of protection, including diversified redundancy, continuous health monitoring, and verified minimum-risk fallback designed to maintain intended performance under normal conditions and to respond safely to unexpected events.

Bot Auto says the result of their continuous validation will include its first human-less commercial cargo run between its Houston and San Antonio hubs. What does this mean? Bot Auto says operations will be with “an uncrewed cab, built on diversified sensing, redundant compute/actuation/power, hot-standby failover, continuous health monitoring, and a disciplined minimal-risk maneuver hierarchy.”

Bot Auto does not have a production deal with a truck OEM, nor are they seeking such a partnership from what I can tell. The company aims to be a freight hauler, purchasing stock trucks and then retrofitting them for Level 4 operations. The aim is to move freight much more efficiently and cheaply than today’s truckers.

On the business side of preparing to launch driverless services, Bot Auto recently announced the placement of a comprehensive insurance program that supports the safe scaling and deployment of its autonomous truck fleet. According to the company, this program establishes new benchmarks for transparency, insurability, and operational accountability in commercial transportation. The insurance program—underwritten by an A-rated carrier and placed by Marsh, a global leader in insurance brokering and risk management—provides Bot Auto with auto liability, property, general liability, cargo, and inland marine protection, complemented by a separate cyber policy.

As the trucking industry faces increasing legal, financial, and reputational exposure—including the risk of nuclear verdicts—Bot Auto notes that autonomy-native operations present a fundamentally different risk profile. As they put it, “The company’s real-time data architecture, consistent vehicle behavior, and traceability create a transparent operating environment where questions that once relied on courtroom debate can now be definitively answered through data. Risk is no longer just underwritten, it’s measurable, traceable, and actively managed.”

Kodiak AI

Steady As She Goes

Founded in 2018 as Kodiak Robotics, the company was one of the early starters in truck automation. With their autonomous-intent trucks supervised by safety drivers, Kodiak trucks have run close to three million highway miles, hauling over 7,000 loads for multiple trucking companies. Kodiak operations span a wide geographic space encompassing Texas east to Georgia as well as north to Oklahoma.

Starting in the long-haul trucking space, Kodiak has diversified to support military autonomy needs, as well as off-road industrial operations.

In fact, operating off-road has enabled Kodiak to take a leading position in driverless operations. In December of last year, Atlas Sands began taking delivery of Kodiak Driver-equipped trucks and launched driverless operations in the Permian Basin. Initially, Atlas took delivery of eight Kodiak-powered driverless trucks, as part of an initial 100 truck order under their agreement with Kodiak. Kodiak intends to scale production into the hundreds of trucks by the end of 2026.

Kodiak does not have a production deal with a truck OEM. The company purchases stock trucks and retrofits them for Level 4 operations.

In September, Kodiak entered the public markets on the NASDAQ exchange. Last month, Kodiak reported 3Q25 results. The Kodiak Driver is now deployed in 10 fully driverless trucks in the Permian Basin, accumulated a total of over 5,200 cumulative hours of paid driverless operations through Q3.

Kodiak continues to provide on-road freight services with fleet customers using safety drivers. The company is firm in their plans to launch on-road driverless operations in the future.

PlusAI

Momentum Across Diverse Production Partnerships

PlusAI has achieved numerous commercial and technology milestones in 2025.

The company started commercial pilots with their OEM production partner International (part of TRATON Group), working with select fleet operators along the Interstate-35 corridor between Laredo and Dallas.

PlusAI also has a production partnership with IVECO and is involved with Hyundai Truck and Bus testing autonomous fuel cell vehicles.

On the engineering side, driver-out validation tests of fully autonomous operations (no person in the truck) were successfully completed, including handling of advanced safety maneuvers.

PlusAI published on-target completion of commercial readiness KPIs: 86% Safety Case Readiness; 98% Autonomous Miles Percentage; and 76% Remote Assistance Free Trips in the first half of 2025, up from 75%, 97%, and 69%, respectively, in the second half of 2024.

During this year Plus established a Safety and Policy Advisory Council with transportation, logistics, and government experts who have in the past led key regulatory and advocacy bodies, including Andrew Boyle and Dan Van Alstine from the American Trucking Associations (ATA), Spencer Moore of the American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators (AAMVA), and Sue Lawless from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA). Lastly, Jeff Denham is a former U.S. Congressman.

In October, International Motors and PlusAI announced a key step in advancing commercialization of Level 4 autonomous trucks built on the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Hyperion platform. The new factory-built vehicles will combine International’s manufacturing process with PlusAI’s SuperDriveTM virtual driver technology to enable production-ready autonomous trucks for large-scale freight operations, powered by NVIDIA’s AI computing architecture.

Going into 2026, PlusAI tells me they plan to expand integration testing with its OEM partners, start driverless operations, and continue validation of the SuperDrive™ virtual driver across key freight corridors, building toward the next phase of customer pilots and the start of series production.

International and PlusAI have previously stated that they are targeting a commercial launch of driverless trucks in 2027. After launch, PlusAI sees expansion going to the Sunbelt states, across the U.S., and Europe. PlusAI notes that it is the only autonomous trucking developer with announced launch partners for Europe.

PlusAI plans to go public via a SPAC process in early 2026. Public documents released in the run-up to the event note that the company is focused on a recurring revenue model with its OEM customers. Through a Driver-as-a-Service (DaaS) model, PlusAI aims to provide autonomy software that will enable recurring, per-mile revenue with high gross margins, with the aim of delivering a capital-efficient path to growth and attractive returns for shareholders. PlusAI estimates that the U.S. market opportunity alone could generate $0.85 in value per mile under a DaaS model, with PlusAI capturing approximately 20–25% of the economics.

And there’s more! See the Perspective section for a rundown of a surprising stunt involving PlusAI truck tech, which is so unprecedented it deserves its own section.

STACK

The Quiet One

There’s not a lot to say about Stack—only because they choose to keep their cards very close to the chest. Not that there’s anything wrong with that!

Coming from a long Carnegie Mellon University research career, Bryan Salesky, founder and CEO of Stack, was previously a founder of robotaxi company Argo AI. Argo AI was dissolved by its founders, Ford and Volkswagen, in late 2022. Not long after, the rumor mill signaled that Dr. Salesky had retained a core team from Argo and was planning a new startup. It seemed to me and many others that the more fertile ground was in autonomous trucking, as compared to robotaxis. These prognostications were validated in 2023 with the launch of Stack.

This year Stack AV formed a Safety Advisory Council comprised of experts with experience in safety practice, security, and transportation technology. This independent, third-party council provides strategic guidance and external oversight to ensure that we adhere to the highest standard of safety in all our business practices.

While maintaining a veil of silence about their activities, Stack participates in key industry activities and advocacy, including being a member of AVIA.

Who knows, maybe we’ll hear more from them next year.

TORC

Leveraging The World’s Largest Truck-Maker

Torc is 51% owned by Daimler Trucks. The company traces its roots to the DARPA Urban Challenge, where their Virginia Tech team came in third place. Over the years they have been a major player in U.S. Defense R&D autonomy programs. A foray into on-road driving began in 2017 and not long after, in 2019, the Torc-Daimler partnership was born.

Torc’s AV 3.0 encompasses the virtual driver software, including the advanced data loop and generative AI simulation infrastructure to train and test it. As Torc puts it, “AV 3.0 is the robust technology needed to safely and efficiently create an autonomous trucking product.” Torc is running this physical AI product on high-volume embedded compute in production-ready vehicles today.

Torc asserts that they are “the first in the industry to deploy our system on a production-intent platform: Daimler Truck’s autonomous-ready Freightliner Cascadia.” They add that “by running the AV 3.0 system on this autonomy-specific redundant chassis, Torc is setting the industry standard in the autonomous trucking space and leading the way to commercially scalable and viable freight solutions.”

Torc and Daimler engineers have purposefully designed and built redundancy into the Freightliner Cascadia platform for safety-critical systems to ensure safe driverless operations. The companies note that, with over 1,500 engineering requirements, all translated into features, and a second set of electronically controlled systems, the autonomous-ready Cascadia sets an industry standard for autonomous systems integration.

This platform includes all essential compute stack components and sensors installed on the production line; a step that allows seamless integration of the virtual driver software.

According to the company, Daimer’s production autonomous trucks powered by Torc will come to market in 2027.

Waabi

Evolving Autonomy

Founded in 2021, Waabi is the champion of AV 2.0, “with an unwavering belief that Physical AI could revolutionize how humanity moves and connects.”

Waabi asserts that the Waabi Driver “is the only interpretable and verifiable end-to-end AI model that is capable of true generalization, enabling it to safely and quickly scale autonomous driving across different geographies, including highways and general surface streets.” This is key to deploying commercial operations that are scalable, which meet the needs of customers and work within existing logistics operations, they say.

“The future of autonomous trucking hinges on three critical areas: autonomous technology that is safe, scalable, and can deliver on customer needs; hardware that is purpose-built for autonomous operations from the ground up; and a commercial deployment model that solves problems in the supply chain without added friction,” said Raquel Urtasun, Founder and CEO of Waabi.

Waabi’s production partnership with Volvo is significant. “The Volvo VNL Autonomous, powered by the Waabi Driver, is the next step in ushering in a stronger, safer, and more efficient era in transportation,” Dr. Urtasun noted.

The Volvo VNL Autonomous is a truck purpose-built for autonomy with redundancies or back-up systems for safety critical functions such as braking, steering and communication.

Waabi is yet another of the AV truck players that pledged early this year to “go driverless.” This month, Waabi clarified what this means. “We are tracking toward driverless software readiness by the end of this year. It is an important milestone in which we demonstrate that our verifiable end-to-end AI software is ready for driverless operations. We will keep an observer in the cab until the fully redundant hardware platform is ready,” said Dr. Urtasun, adding that “this intentional approach underscores our commitment to safety and working alongside our partners as we reach these important milestones, and together enable the future of Level 4 autonomous trucks.”

Dr. Urtasun emphasized that this driverless software launch is a Waabi specific milestone that is independent from its partnership with Volvo Autonomous Solutions.

To address the trucking market comprehensively, truck autonomy must replicate how trucks operate today. In a December blog post, Waabi makes it clear they are going for the whole banana, noting they have “unlocked a direct-to-customer commercial model that works within existing logistics operations by driving on both highways and surface streets, enabling us to deliver the technical capabilities and commercial approach the industry has been waiting for.”

Lior Ron, a key innovator in freight and autonomy over the last decade, is founder and CEO of Uber Freight. Last summer, he joined Waabi as COO. We had a chat not long ago about how he is viewing the trucking autonomy space.

In Waabi’s early days, its bullishness about end-to-end autonomy resulted in a cautious approach from some in the AV industry. Other developers implemented both deterministic and AI approaches, and prominent voices questioned Waabi’s ability to fulfill safety requirements on the open road with AI only. I asked Mr. Ron how this issue has evolved since then. Simply put, in his view AV2.0 skepticism is “not much of a thing anymore.” In fact, “over fifty Fortune 500 truck fleets are ready and waiting for autonomous trucks.” He emphasized that the Waabi platform can be a boon for medium/small freight carriers who regularly use Uber Freight for acquiring loads. In fact, Waabi is running freight now via Uber Freight, with a Safety Driver in the driver’s seat.

When will this start to happen at scale? Mr. Ron said that autonomy ready platforms from Volvo Autonomous Solutions are, rather than years, “quarters away.”

On the funding side, word is that Waabi is closing in on a $750M financing round this month, valuing the company at $3B.

SHORT HAUL B2B

EINRIDE

Early AV Starter, Now Diversified

Founded in 2016 and headquartered in Stockholm, Einride offers electric and autonomous freight operations for large shippers, deploying its technology platform and operational expertise across seven countries, demonstrating commercial traction. Their autonomy services focus on short haul runs on surface streets.

Einride has operations with more than 25 enterprise customers, leveraging its current fleet of approximately 200 electric vehicles. Autonomous EV deployments are underway with a small fleet operating at low speeds covering short distances. Customers include GE Appliances in the U.S. and Apotea, Sweden’s leading online pharmacy. Einride vehicles have operated over 1,700 driverless hours in contracted customer operations,

Einride’s business model centers on a dual Freight-Capacity-as-a-Service (FCaaS) and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) approach through its proprietary AI powered platform, which orchestrates the entire ecosystem required for electric and autonomous operations.

Through its SaaS offering, Einride can license its technology platform to third parties, including both the operational planning AI software and Einride’s proprietary autonomous driving system, creating multiple revenue streams and scalability pathways.

Einride’s big news? They announced in November that the company will enter the public markets via a SPAC in 2026, on the New York Stock Exchange.

Gatik

Owning Autonomy For The Middle Mile

Gatik said earlier this year that their scalable Generation 3 platform will begin driverless commercial operations by the end of this year. But they are not new to driverless operations. In 2021, on an earlier version of their platform, Gatik began moving freight on regional networks for Walmart fully driverlessly in Northwest Arkansas. As far as I know, this was the world’s first set of commercial on-road autonomous deliveries.

As the platform matured over time, Gatik has provided freight services with medium duty trucks, using safety drivers, for Kroger, Loblaws, Walmart, Georgia-Pacific, and others. After working with Loblaws since 2020, Gatik recently announced a new contract to deliver goods with greater frequency and responsiveness to over 300 Loblaws stores - a total of 50 trucks. This signifies the largest single commercial deployment of autonomous trucks in North America, the company says. The Total Contract Value for Gatik’s autonomy services under this expanded deployment with Loblaws is approximately $36M.

Gatik is doing an impressive job of making autonomous transportation into a real business.

The expanded fleet will initially be deployed with safety drivers onboard, before transitioning to Freight-Only (driverless) operations across Loblaws regional distribution networks in the Toronto region.

In preparation for Gatik’s multi-year expansion with Loblaws, Gatik worked closely with the Ministry of Transportation of Ontario to inform the development of the Automated Commercial Motor Vehicle (ACMV) Pilot Program, a new provincial regulatory framework that launched in August. The program enables the operation of Gatik’s medium-duty autonomous trucks on all surface streets and highways in the province, as well as Class 8 big-rigs. With the ACMV Program now in effect, Gatik and Loblaws are well positioned to continue to scale autonomous driving operations.

By focusing on high-frequency transportation networks within strategically defined, commercially dense areas, Gatik has developed what they describe as a robust commercial solution that maximizes safety, scalability, and speed to market.

Gatik’s regional network approach aims to deliver value with Freight-Only operations underway in markets such as Texas, Ontario, Arkansas and Arizona with new markets and new customers set to be announced early next year.

Gatik’s OEM production partner is Isuzu North America, which is also an investor in Gatik.

YARD OPERATIONS

FERNRIDE

European Yard Autonomy

In contrast to driverless freight runs on highways and streets, yard trucks operate on pavement within industrial facilities, moving trailers and/or containers. These are highly intensive operations which are vital to logistics, but little known to the public since this occurs “behind the fence” at logistics centers.

FERNRIDE, the sole European pioneer in yard truck automation, announced last summer that it has begun the transition to driverless operation of terminal tractors. This is occurring at the sprawling HHLA TK Estonia logistics terminal, which is situated on the Baltic Sea near Tallinn.

Founded in 2020, FERNRIDE has raised more than $60M in venture funding.

FERNRIDE offers a human-assisted autonomy approach to this use case, which allows for remote takeovers of trucks when necessary. This ensures seamless integration and reliable operations for logistics operators, the company says.

FERNRIDE’s transition to driverless operations follows the certification of their safety concept and system design by TÜV SÜD, as well as approval by the Estonian Transport Administration. FERNRIDE notes that it is the first company to receive TÜV SÜD certification for an autonomous terminal tractor in accordance with the EU Machinery Directive (2006/42/EC).

FERNRIDE and HHLA have had an ongoing partnership since early 2023, working closely to ensure a seamless transition into live operations, executing productive moves on the terminal. The strategy focuses on implementing a gradual approach to integrate FERNRIDE-enabled autonomous terminal tractors at HHLA TK Estonia without safety drivers. Three FERNRIDE tractors are currently in operation at the terminal.

Forterra

Synergies Across Defense and Logistics

Forterra was founded as Robotic Research in 2002 and has been a key player in the development and deployment of ground autonomy systems in defense ever since then. The company is headquartered in Clarksburg, Maryland, just up the road from the U.S. Capitol.

Forterra delivers autonomous mission systems for defense, which entails an eclectic set of Operational Design Domains encompassing self-driving land systems, coordinated swarms of robotic systems, and more. A recent string of contract wins for the company includes the first ground autonomy production contract with the DoD for ROGUE Fires with the Marine Corps, a $114M prime contract to deploy autonomous breaching systems for the Army, a Phase II award for the Army’s GEARS program focused on automating the Army’s heavy logistics fleet, and a $4.8M contract for the Army’s UxS Program. This side of the company gives them staying power in case the autonomous yard truck market moves slowly.

In the yard truck space, Forterra has forged a production relationship with vehicle manufacturer Kalmar which will result in new terminal tractors equipped with Forterra’s “AutoDrive” autonomous driving system. The partnership between Kalmar and Forterra was established in early 2024. Kalmar’s Ottawa AutoTT™ is an autonomous terminal tractor designed to improve efficiency and safety in distribution centers, container terminals, and industrial yards. The AutoTT™ is currently undergoing its second round of testing as Kalmar moves closer to bringing it to market, with full production anticipated by 2026. The first autonomous solution will be available for the Kalmar Ottawa T2 diesel tractor followed by the recently announced Kalmar Ottawa T2 EV electric terminal tractor.

Forterra’s fund-raising track record so far is not too shabby. In 2021 the company raised a $228M Series A, which was succeeded by a $75M Series B round last year. Last month, the company entered a new phase in their journey, closing a $238M Series C funding round consisting of equity and debt.

HubPilot

Leveraging Infrastructure Support

HubPilot, backed by Mitsubishi Electric, takes a unique approach to yard autonomy by combining their HubDrive Autonomous Drive System with support from their YardSense system to provide infrastructure-based perception.

Last winter, the HubPilot system operated through Michigan weather which had multiple occasions of snow each month. The company noted that, “Testing during this time at a customer deployment allowed us to expand our operational design domain into more inclement weather. Also, during this period, we have been able to reduce our switch time (coupling and uncoupling trailers) by an estimated 30%.”

ISEE

Moving Towards High Volume Commercial Launch

ISEE AI and TICO announced a strategic partnership last spring, which is aimed at autonomy-capable yard trucks rolling off the assembly line next year.

At that time, a company spokesperson noted that “ISEE autonomous yard trucks are currently live at a Fortune 100 logistics service provider hub, actively handling production moves, with the tech upfitted on standard TICO tractors. In these operations, hundreds of thousands of autonomous trailer moves have already occurred,” adding that additional customer deployments were planned for late 2025.

Providing autonomy on new trucks is the most straightforward way to enter the market. But what about the huge installed base of yard tractors working across the world? Can they be upgraded? This depends on a lot of factors, but ISEE and TICO see this as a key market; they have launched an autonomy retrofit program for existing vehicles currently in the hands of customers.

Outrider

First Mover For Yard Operations

Founded in 2017, Outrider launched the first significant initiative in commercializing autonomous yard truck services.

The newest version of the Outrider system, announced in January, integrates advanced reinforcement learning capabilities allowing for fluid robotic movement through complex distribution yard settings full of outside actors such as over-the-road trucks, maintenance personnel and site employees. The Outrider System includes over a dozen proprietary safety mechanisms specifically designed to address the hazards of distribution yard automation.

Outrider is working closely with multiple Fortune 500 customers to scale autonomous yard operations in package shipping, e-commerce, retail, grocery, consumer packaged goods, intermodal rail, and automotive manufacturing. The Outrider system “has executed hundreds of thousands of autonomous trailer moves across multiple distribution sites with dozens of vehicles,” according to a company spokesperson.

Outrider-powered OrangeEV electric yard trucks have been operating for several years. Last spring, Outrider revealed that TICO will be offering its latest yard truck design with the Outrider system.

PERSPECTIVE

Long Haul

In terms of driverless operations, Aurora says they will return to driverless operations in 2026. Bot Auto’s stance seems to indicate a 2026 launch, but no statements have been made. PlusAI and Torc, working with their OEM partners, are both aiming at 2027. Waabi, working with their OEM partner, is hinting at 2026 or 2027. Kodiak, busy with business off-road, still has on-road driverless on their horizon. Stack offers no indications.

We are seeing two companies, Bot Auto and Kodiak, moving into commercialization via a retrofit process. Over recent years, the engineering has evolved such that this can be done, sufficiently to launch driverless operations. However, the process adds costs, thus dinging the bottom line. On the other hand, working independently of an OEM partner could enable an AV company to “chart their own course” in running Transportation-as-a-Service.

At this point, it is unknown how many L4-equipped trucks will roll off the assembly lines from various manufacturers as the decade marches on. An OEM has a vast array of factors they must consider in terms of what platforms they prioritize, and what features are offered in specific markets. The customer’s voice must be attended to, and regulatory developments must be factored in.

Over the years, for cars and trucks, countless tech suppliers to the auto industry have had their dreams smashed after arranging a deal with a vehicle manufacturer, due to the sorts of market forces described above. To have a path to market independent of OEM dynamics could provide another way.

On another note, I’m glad to see Waabi’s move to support surface streets as well as highways. Most of the players in this space have demonstrated surface street capability in specific scenarios. I expect some of them are highly advanced in running on streets in general. Going forward, the ability to take the load “from dock to dock” across both highways and streets will be a decisive competitive discriminator.

Short Haul

The short haul B2B space has two players, Einride and Gatik (others have come and gone).

Gatik sources its trucks based on an in-depth partnership with Isuzu Trucks. Einride’s business model does not require a manufacturer partnership; they build their own vehicles.

Einride’s single operation in the U.S. serving GE Appliances runs at low speeds on very limited sections of public roads. Gatik runs at posted speeds on all types of local roads. Therefore, at this time any market overlap with Gatik would be minor.

As Einride scales up due to their SPAC infusion, they may seek to compete head-to-head with Gatik. To do so would be challenging. Looking at their dance card, Gatik has quite a head start.

Waabi’s newly announced capability to run on surface streets raises the question: will they start running freight in the short haul space? Waabi says that fundamentally, they will only be fielding Class 8 tractors. So, not likely, since tractor-trailers are not a good fit with most short haul B2B operations.

Nevertheless, the short haul B2B space is huge. There is room for multiple players. Importantly, the shippers want competition.

As to driverless operations, Gatik is indicating some significant announcements will come early in 2026.

Watch Waymo

On the robotaxi side, I see Waymo moving very quickly in 2026 to add highway operations to its street operations, wherever they are already operating and in new markets. When this happens, I have no doubt they will re-consider shutting down their trucking play in 2023. They could offer freight services directly, or license autonomy to a third party. If they enter the freight market, they would be a strong competitor to any of the long and short haul companies noted here.

Yard Autonomy

The yard autonomy space is quite robust. All the factors seem to be in place for industry-wide implementation over the coming years. Leading yard trucks OEMs are very much in the game, and I’m intrigued by TICO’s plan to retrofit existing yard tractors for autonomy. Since annual sales volumes are modest, it makes sense to provide autonomy upgrades where feasible. This higher volume could be pivotal for the business success of the startups.

In the U.S., yard autonomy will take root initially in logistics yards, i.e. distribution centers and the like. However, in Europe, Fernride’s deployments key on seaports, where I’m told the trade unions see the tech as improving operations and enhancing the jobs of their members. In the U.S., where seaports are highly unionized, don’t even think about admitting an autonomous truck into a seaport.

In the yard, efficiency is key. In moving safely among all the other actors active on the pavement, trailer moves need to happen as fast or faster than current operations. Not only in traversing the yard, but also in connecting and disconnecting the trailer couplings and cables. The various startups are implementing an array of strategies to address this need; it will be interesting to see how things shake out.

Public Markets

SPACs have not been kind to autonomous truck developers in past years. During what I would call Early SPAC, the scene was very slapdash and frothy. The last couple of years have shown that a feet-on-the-ground SPAC approach appears to be a good way forward when companies are ready.

Aurora and Kodiak are now publicly traded. Next year, PlusAI and Einride are expected to enter the fray. It’s very likely we’ll see a handful of others by year’s end.

Regulatory Dynamics

Regulatory moves at the Federal level have picked up under Trump II. There is guarded optimism that this Presidential administration will deliver on measures long sought by the driverless vehicle industry.

The Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association (AVIA) was established in 2016 (initially as the Self Driving Coalition) to work with policymakers, regulators, civic organizations, and the public to make automated driving a reality across the road transportation space. The AVIA focus incorporates all types of vehicles operating in the public space.

Needless to say, AVIA faces quite a challenge in addressing existing regulations and seeking new rules. All of the on-road companies profiled in this article are members of AVIA with the exception of Einride. The truck vehicle manufacturers are also represented, such as International and Volvo Autonomous Solutions.

The Alliance for Automotive Innovation is another key player in the policy space, focusing on light vehicle. Members include a range of car manufacturers and suppliers.

AVIA, AAI, and the Consumer Technology Association have long been advocating for a uniform federal framework addressing autonomous vehicles. To add power to this initiative, a new player is on the scene: United For Autonomy, whose members comprise a wide range of industry associations and safety advocates.

For all, the aim is to establish a Federal AV Framework. Early this year, AVIA published a roadmap for this goal, Securing American Leadership in Autonomous Vehicles. AVIA’s recommendations focus on the following key areas:

· AV Safety, Transparency, and Accountability

· Advancing American Leadership on AVs

· Supporting Supply Chain Resiliency Through Autonomous Trucking

· Supporting Safety Regulators with Enhanced Resources

· Protecting National Security While Promoting AV Leadership

There has been some much-needed progress. Aurora’s ramp-up to run hundreds of trucks next year recently received a welcome boost from federal regulators. After a protracted process with USDOT, starting at the beginning of this decade (which included an inexplicable and bumbling response from the Biden Administration), in October USDOT’s Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) granted Aurora a waiver on roadside warning beacons. In current law, these beacons are an archaic requirement of any commercial truck driver that, when the vehicle must stop on the road shoulder, the driver must exit the truck to place a reflective warning triangle on the roadside behind the truck. Skeptics abound as to the wisdom of this approach in general, which would obviously be a challenge for a driverless truck.

Thus, an unnecessary barrier appears to have been lifted for Aurora, and there are indications that similar allowances will be provided across the industry in the near term.

Earlier this month, at the 2025 Texas Autonomous Trucking Research Symposium, newly confirmed FMCSA Administrator Derek Barrs provided a keynote address. During a long career in motor carrier enforcement for the state of Florida, Administrator Barrs was active on the autonomous trucking scene starting over a decade ago. He led key AV-related initiatives within Commercial Motor Vehicle Safety Alliance, as well.

Derek Barrs leadership at FMCSA is a breath of fresh air. In his keynote, the Administrator was vociferous in his disdain for the Biden Administration’s treatment of the original Aurora-Waymo request to provide a waiver on warning triangles. He indicated that further measures will be put in place to support AV trucking across all operators.

An Unparalleled Stunt… To Good Effect For All

I would be shocked if you haven’t seen or heard about the “jump through the trucks Red Bull mountain bike stunt” already! You have to see it to understand it, but in short…

Two tractor trailers are moving towards each other on a straight test track, in adjacent lanes. Their trailers are an empty frame, open on the sides. There is a point in which the trucks overlap such that a “portal” is created, perpendicular to the road, through which an object can pass through both trailers. So far, intriguing, but no big deal.

But then, add a guy on a mountain bike who aims to gain speed, power up a ramp and pass through this portal. Not too difficult if the trucks are moving at 1 mph, but these trucks are moving at a significant speed. In fact, at this speed, the portal exists for less than a second. Red Bull athlete Matt Jones, after a few trials, zips up and propels himself right through the portal!

Scania trucks equipped with PlusAI autonomy made it work. Imagine two truck drivers trying to create such a portal in an exact spot on the track at this speed— it would be close to impossible. Autonomy is the key.

Autonomous trucks on the road must deliver a wide range of capabilities to operate safely and effectively. Lining up two trailer shells at speed has no bearing on the freight movement mission. But, to Scania’s credit, the eye-popping visual of this biker jumping through that portal is social media gold. In fact, as of this writing, Scania has seen over 500M views from this marketing campaign.

Wait a minute—what? A half billion people—who might never have cared about anything trucks or anything AI… saw this tech in action. These people now have an inkling of what road autonomy is capable of. That’s a win for the entire autonomy space.

According to Scania, the stunt is part of a public exposure campaign to help the broad public see autonomous trucks as a concept and appreciate some of its basic capabilities. Kudos to Scania and PlusAI for this intriguing initiative.

You Get The Trophy!

...if you read this entire article. One of my longest ever over the last years, …but there’s a lot going on!

I hope you found it useful. Happy Holidays!

Disclosure: Richard Bishop is an advisor to and/or an equity holder in the following companies mentioned in this article: Aurora, Gatik, PlusAI, Forterra, Outrider.